Digital openness and growth beyond oil: ICT, foreign direct investment, globalization, and long-run economic performance in the GCC

This study examines the joint effects of digital development, foreign direct investment (FDI), globalization, and trade openness on economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries within an augmented Cobb–Douglas production framework. Using a panel of the six GCC countries over 2000–2024, we employ group-mean fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and group-mean dynamic OLS (DOLS) panel cointegration estimators, complemented by fixed-effects and mean-group estimates. The findings are consistently robust across model specifications: ICT development, FDI, and trade openness are positively and significantly associated with real GDP per capita. The globalization coefficient is negative in the pooled and group-mean cointegration estimators but positive under the mean-group estimator, indicating that the growth payoff from global integration is conditional on country-specific absorptive capacity, institutional quality, and the composition of cross-border flows. The results imply that digital infrastructure and openness support diversification most effectively when paired with policies that convert connectivity and global linkages into domestic productive capabilities.