COVID-19 is a public health millions of deaths since the end problem that has had an international impact that has led to of 2019, and the Peruvian population was no stranger to this situation. Therefore, the following investigation was conducted to correlate mortality from COVID-19, estimate the critical time (days) for the maximum rate of estimated deceased people, and validate the reliability of the models. Data on people who died from COVID-19 up to February 27, 2023, were considered, with which the pandemic dispersion was carried out, arriving to determine that they describe a sigmoidal logistic dispersion, an event that was mathematically modeled using the predictive logistic equation N=M⁄((1+A×e^(-k×t))). Using this predictive mathematical model, the number and rate of deaths among people with COVID-19 in Peru were determined. In addition, the critical time (t_c) was estimated, whose value was t_c=396 days for the maximum rate 〖((dN ̂)⁄dt)〗_máx=484.7450 people/day, and the date on which the maximum rate of people who died from COVID-19 was April 15, 2021. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the time elapsed (t) and the number of deceased people (N) in Peru, based on 32 cases, turned out to be r=-0.89085; determining that the relationship is real, that there is a non-significant difference, that the predictive model has a high estimate of the correlated data, that there is a " very strong correlation " between the time elapsed (t) and the number of deceased people (N), and that 79.4% of the variance in N is explained by t; for people who died from COVID-19 in Peru.
Prediction of deaths from COVID-19 with the modified logistic model, in Peru
Authors
- Marín Machuca, Olegario Professional School of Food Engineering, Faculty of Oceanography, Fisheries, Food Sciences and Aquaculture, Federico Villarreal National University, Lima 15074, Peru, and Graduate University School, Federico Villarreal National University, Lima 15001, Peru, and Environmental Sustainability Research Group (GISA), Lima 15001, Peru. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0515-5875
- Vargas Ayala, Jessica Blanca Academic Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Oceanography, Fisheries, Food Sciences and Aquaculture, Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal, Lima 15074, Peru
- Pérez Ton, Luis Adolfo Professional School of Food Engineering, Faculty of Fisheries and Food Engineering, Universidad Nacional del Callao. Callao, Peru
- Chinchay Barragán, Carlos Enrique Professional School of Food Engineering, Faculty of Fisheries and Food Engineering, Universidad Nacional del Callao. Callao, Peru
- Rojas Rueda, María del Pilar Professional School of Human Medicine, Norbert Wiener University, Lima, Peru
- Huaranja Montaño, Max Alejandro University Graduate School (EUPG), Federico Villareal National University. Lima, Peru
- Sernaqué Auccahuasi, Fernando Antonio Faculty of Geographical, Environmental and Ecotourism Engineering, Federico Villarreal National University, Lima 15082, Peru
